Deciphering the Intricacies of the NFL's Running Back Landscape

Are you ready to crack the code of the NFL's running back landscape? We're your guides for this thrilling journey where we'll examine stunning statistics and trends surrounding running back contracts, their dwindling presence in the first-round NFL drafts, and their astonishingly low average salary. Together, we'll unravel the complexity of the franchise tag with expert insights from CBS Sports' Tyler Stephenson, predicting who might break into the top 10 this season, plus unveiling our sleeper prospects and those who could go boom or bust.

Let's dissect the AFC's running backs, from top 10 contenders Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs, to factors like age, number of touches, and injury risk that could affect their on-field performance. We'll even ponder the potential influence of other team players, and how they might alter these star backs' numbers. Switching gears, we'll shed light on players like Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, and Rhamondre Stevenson, delving into contract quandaries, age factors, and how these could affect the upcoming season.

Finally, we'll take you into the upper echelons of Fantasy Football, giving you a rundown of the top 10 fantasy running backs, with a particular focus on the Detroit Lions' back room. Learn how to navigate the upcoming drafts, with our hard-earned advice on how to ace your selection process. This episode of the Vegas Guys Locker Room is your ultimate guide to the NFL's running back realm, full of invaluable insights, predictions, and strategies for the upcoming season. Hold on tight as we tackle the details that could redefine your game!

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:07

I'm doing great. I'm a little under the weather. I have I have some hernia issues, so I'm sitting here on the couch kind of like let let those letting those calm down.

Speaker 2: 0:17

But yeah, overall I'm doing good, Looking forward to this upcoming season and always great to be back on Vegas guys locker room. I'm going to be back on the next episode. I'm going to be back on the next episode. I'm going to be back on the next episode of the upcoming season and always great to be back on Vegas, guys locker room. Make sure the invite you letting that age catch up to you, buddy. Oh, I'm telling you, brother, once I turned 50, it's like I'm like on the downhill slide here.

Speaker 2: 0:41

I don't know I'm getting there. I just have some hernia issues and so I'm trying to just, you know, take care of that.

Speaker 1: 0:50

Yeah, no worries, man, always get the heavy on the show. Man, I always love when you're on here.

Speaker 2: 0:52

You really got some good information.

Speaker 1: 0:55

Thanks Alright, guys. Well, today's show we're going to talk about the state of the running back. Everybody knows that there's a lot going on with the running backs, everything that's going on with them. They want to get paid. Nobody wants to risk the money, especially even draft capital, to to get running backs nowadays. So we'll talk about a few things on that and then we'll also get into our our running backs boom or bust, a sleepers edition. We'll look at some of the guys in the top 10 running backs that we feel could fall out and a couple of them that we believe will make their way into the top 10, including a couple long shots. So let's get this ball rolling, guys. So, george, state of your running back. I know you've looked up some facts on this. What's everything going on? How is this going to affect the league?

Speaker 2: 1:39

Listen, I did some research over the last few weeks and we all kind of know what happened with the Jonathan Taylor, you know, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley issues there with contracts, and there was some type of like zoom symposium with the running backs talking about how they're kind of treated unfairly because of the position and the you know, beating their body takes and blah, blah, blah. But the research that I've done and the numbers that I've actually seen, it's kind of crazy. I've always been the kind of guy that I believe if you sign a contract, you should, you know, live up to that contract and if you've done well enough, hopefully the team gives you another long-term deal. But after looking at these numbers, I've kind of switched, you know, I've kind of made it. I look at it in a different way and here's why. So here's what I've done. So there's a gentleman on CBS Sports I'll give a shout out to Tyler Stephenson. He wrote a great article on this whole issue and so I just want to read off some of the numbers this guy has come up with and it's really amazing, astounding, what you're going to hear, I think so.

Speaker 2: 2:56

From 2000 to 2010,. You're talking an 11-year stretch. There were 35 running backs selected in the first round of the NFL draft. That number was essentially cut in half from 2011 to 2023. At 13-year stretch, there were only 18 running backs picked in the first round. Wow.

Speaker 2: 3:18

Yeah, I know it's amazing, Everybody thinks it's running back, running back, running back. But really, it's really changed in how this league has changed from, you know, running back league to a wide receiver league. I mean, let's be honest, look at the ADP, look at the players now that are taken in the first round over running backs in the first round. Yeah.

Speaker 2: 3:37

So you know, I try to look at it from the owner's side of this. First, listen, there's been some bad deals made over the last five, six, seven years, one being Todd Gurley. Okay, we all love Todd Gurley when he was healthy, fortunately had the bad injury, but he had signed a $60 million deal at that time. And don't get me wrong, he signed a deal. You live up to it. Owners, you know just as much at fault there. But you know it handcuffs teams when those kind of deals are done.

Speaker 2: 4:13

Another perfect example is Zeke Elliott signing a 90-year, 90 million dollar deal. Let's be honest, he wasn't really the same player the last two or three years. Yeah, absolutely, lady on Belt 52 million. You know this guy's out of the league, you know. So don't get me wrong. The owners, I get it from their side of it. But now I'm looking more at the player's side of it and I'm going to read off some more numbers here. So you can franchise these teams can franchise players, and the franchise tag is essentially, you're signing that player to a one-year deal with an average annual salary of the top five players in that position. I want to read. This was amazing to me. I still can't believe it when I look at it. So the average running back currently makes and I'm going to round these numbers makes 1.8 million a season. The only positions that running backs make more than are long snappers, hunters and fullbacks. Wow, yeah, that is amazing.

Speaker 1: 5:26

Wow.

Speaker 2: 5:26

Okay, that is amazing. Okay, the average kicker earns more than the average running back in the NFL. Now, granted, there are more running backs than kickers in the league. Okay, every team holds three, maybe even four running backs. Okay, I kind of get to.

Speaker 1: 5:46

Hold on. I got to sign my son up for soccer now.

Speaker 2: 5:52

Get him signed up as quickly as possible. So, like I said, tyler Sullivan from CBS Sports wrote this and he broke down these numbers. So franchise tag from 2015 to 2023, quarterbacks 18.5 million in 2015, 32.5 million in 2023. Okay, and I can go right on down the line. Linebacker franchise tag in 15 was 13 million. Franchise tag now for 2023 is basically 21 million. So I think I said I can go right on down the line, but when it gets to running back, quite a bit different Running back, the only position from 2015 to 2023 that actually went down in franchise tag, which is incredible to me 2015, franchise tag 10.1 million. 2023, barely over 10 million.

Speaker 1: 7:02

You're saying that's the only position that dropped.

Speaker 2: 7:04

That is the only position that dropped. Every other position that I'm looking at I'm talking every position defense also wide receiver, defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive linebacker, quarterback, safety, tight end have all gone up significantly not barely, but significantly have gone up. The running back position is the only position that has actually gone down since 2015 to now 2023 for the franchise tag price. So I kind of get it from the player standpoint. These guys, their bodies, take such a beating. I can't blame Jonathan Taylor, I can't blame Josh Jacobs, especially Jacob. Last year around the ball he touched the ball fighting 300 and 370 times. It was some ridiculous amount of touches 304 a 340 rushing attempts last year. You know, don't get me wrong, these guys make a lot of money, but I kind of get it, you know, based on this whole running back situation, After reading these numbers, I kind of get it from the running back, from the player standpoint, more so than the owner standpoint.

Speaker 2: 8:15

So it was just some numbers. Yeah, I just want to throw out some numbers there. It's pretty, pretty incredible the the difference, you know, based on position that these players are making.

Speaker 1: 8:25

So yeah, that's, I mean it's. I mean it's showing across the league too. I mean I believe the best, best comparison to that is I mean, look at your Pittsburgh Steelers. You have Najee Harris who was a first-round pick. Yeah, you give up a lot of draft, back our capital, to pick this man up in the first round. His backup is Jaylen Warren. Arguably, that's gonna be a backfield by committee. It's like you said. I didn't. I believe on a last show you talked about how it's probably gonna be like a 6040 split.

Speaker 2: 8:51

I Don't think just any doubt.

Speaker 1: 8:54

Jaylen Warren went undrafted.

Speaker 2: 8:57

Yeah, so you're essentially a 6040 split.

Speaker 1: 8:59

You're saying both of these players are just as good as one another, and yet you took one in the first round and One went undrafted.

Speaker 2: 9:07

Yeah, it's pretty incredible, yeah, yeah. So yeah, I mean, and I agree with you, I mean I do think, I mean me being a stealer fan, I follow them, but yeah, I do think that's gonna be a split backfield. If you've watched the preseason, it's, it's already showing. I watched the game last night against Atlanta Mm-hmm. I thought both of them looked great. I mean, granted, they were going against the second and third teamers, but I thought both of them looked excellent. Look like now, as you kind of slim down, had a little more, little more giddy up to yeah, but a little more burst.

Speaker 2: 9:36

Jaylen Warren. He's that. You know, scott, that guy that has the quickness that can get through that line quick, oh yeah, getting back to your point, I think that is a definite backfield. You know what's gonna be? Two-headed monster really.

Speaker 1: 9:47

Yeah, I think more teams are going that way. I mean, look at the stats on passing plays compared to wearing plays. I mean, if you take out the two top rushing teams from last year, passing play percentage was over 57%. You're a lot, you're? It's? That's insane. I mean, you're really only using a running back for running the football. About what? 40% of the time? Right? And now if you're going split. So basically you're only using each guy 20% of the game.

Speaker 1: 10:18

And I'm right in a rushing, in a rushing situation. So I mean I can see that the value from the business standpoint and I also see the player standpoint. Well, they want to get paid because it is a brutal position. You are gonna, you're sacrificing your body. It's a very short-lived career. We've talked about it running backs peak at 24 years old.

Speaker 2: 10:38

Yeah, usually the down slide comes about 27, 28 year old. You know. So these running backs that are out there now, you know, like I said to Derek Henry, or you know some of these guys you know, 29, 30 years old, especially Derek Henry, he's, you know really things 31. You know, yeah.

Speaker 2: 10:54

You know, yeah, I mean a lot of touches over the last five, six years, incredible, you know, touches over the last five, six years, yeah, maybe you know, see it down, you know down, slide there for him, oh yeah, but yeah, but these guys, you know I get it from from the player standpoint more so now you, we see them as kind of greedy, or you know they, you know they want the big contract. After reading these numbers, like from the running back standpoint, I'm talking I kind of get it. I really do. I kind of get it. So yeah, because you are, essentially you're only getting two contracts.

Speaker 1: 11:24

You're getting that rookie deal where you're not gonna make a whole lot of money and then you have to capitalize on that second contract because Usually, more times than not, you're you're out of the league by the time you're out of the league. You're out of the league, but by the time you're 30 and you've got no chance of making more money as a running back.

Speaker 2: 11:39

Absolutely. They. Look at, tom Brady played through his four even though from when he was 21, but he was 45. You know running backs you have no chance. You know you're like. You said you got about a seven-year window there, eight years if you're lucky, and that's it. You're kind of done, yeah, so you know I said I get it from the player standpoint, more so now than before, mm-hmm.

Speaker 1: 11:59

So no, yeah, I mean it's, and I don't blame them, I'd be doing the same thing. I'd be trying to get my money before my career ended to make sure I was taken care of, especially, especially the beating they take. So, but yeah, no, that was really great stuff. I mean, yeah, everybody's been wondering about this. You know, jonathan Taylor, of course, has been seeking that trade. I'm kind of curious. I mean it's, it's even morning here that you don't do you think it's? Possible, they move on for him.

Speaker 2: 12:24

I think they, I think they move on if they get the right deal. I mean they're asking for a first round pick or, from what I understand, miami made an offer and the Coles rejected it. I get the feeling. I get the feeling just based on the last couple of days. I think he is gonna move on. I think somebody is gonna make a deal for him. Miami has, has the capital to do it, has the money to do it. From a salary cap standpoint, I think Philadelphia is Still in on it. I think every chance at it. So yeah, I, but I think he is gonna. I think he is gonna go somewhere in the next few days. I get that feeling.

Speaker 1: 13:01

Yeah, I'm curious on the Miami situation, because they had Dalvin cook in there and I don't know what it was. I don't know what they offered him, but to go up to New York and not sign with the home, his hometown, miami yeah right, was the offer that? Are they not willing to pay a running back? And you know what? You're gonna have to trade the draft capital, but you're also gonna have to pay John to Taylor on top of it.

Speaker 2: 13:23

I'm not about using gonna. He isn't gonna go there on a one-year deal. He's gonna if he goes, he's trying to get a long-term deal, obviously, or the facts of being in Indianapolis, but I get the feeling he's gonna move on here in the next. I think he has until Tuesday, if I'm not mistaken, to get a deal done.

Speaker 1: 13:37

Yeah yeah so we'll see what it would. It would it, would it be bad if he ended up like in Chicago, that has the salary cap and the draft capital, but you kind of end up in the same situation. You are in Indianapolis, yeah, I mean I'm trying.

Speaker 2: 13:52

If I'm Jonathan Taylor, I'm trying to go to the team where I think he's gonna win now.

Speaker 2: 13:56

Yeah absolutely not, not into that. You know, do I think Chicago's better? Absolutely they're better. And then the last, you know, two, three, four years. But you know, I think I think Miami is built to kind of win now. Yeah, and I'll be honest with you, if he goes to Miami, I think that makes them a top contender. Oh, absolutely, I'm putting it, I'm putting them up there with Buffalo, kansas City. I think they're gonna be that good with the Johnson Center in the backfield.

Speaker 1: 14:22

Absolutely, I think they're gonna be great. It's it's the defense that's gonna be always their biggest question going forward. But yeah, I mean, it's tough division to tough division both. Both the bills and the jets have solid defenses, so it's gonna be a good division. That, that division, that that, that AFC East and that AFC North that you have, I think, are gonna be the two top divisions, especially in the AFC. Those guys at those teams are stacked.

Speaker 2: 14:46

Yeah, the AFC North, you know Baltimore, cincinnati and then I think Pittsburgh is kind of coming up from the bottom. There they had a couple of rough years, you know the last year or two, but I forget the feeling they may be on their way back. Oh, absolutely, and I think Cleveland is gonna be improved. I think the Sean Watson now he has kind of a year under his belt with the Cleveland system. I think Cleveland is gonna be better this year also. Nice.

Speaker 1: 15:10

All right, well, listen, thanks for all that info. We're gonna, we're gonna move on, we're gonna go with our sleepers and bus pick first. I'm gonna start with our guys that we believe are potential bus. These are the guys that right now are going as top 10 running backs. We believe that they probably won't finish the year as a top 10 court running back. George, who do you have? What's your two picks that you believe will not be in the top 10?

Speaker 2: 15:34

Well, my first pick I just touched on on a few minutes ago and it's Derek Henry. And listen, I love Derek Henry. The guy's been terrific Since he's since he stepped into the league. But I just get the feeling that the age is going to catch up with him, and here's why. So his rushing attempts over the last five years he's had 14, he's touched it just rushing now 1464 times. Okay, on top of that you add in another 103 receptions. That's 1567 total touches in the last five years. Your average in about 312 touches per year. That, yeah, that's a lot of touches over the last five years. Don't get me wrong, the guy is terrific, always comes to camp in shape. But I just get the feeling it's gonna catch up to him this year.

Speaker 1: 16:27

I mean you looked at it the last couple of years he has been, he's gotten hurt where it wasn't.

Speaker 2: 16:32

Yeah, he's been banged up a little bit. Correct. Yeah, he's been banged up a little bit and, like I said I just he's hit that 29, 30 year old range with all those touches. I get the feeling that if there's anybody that could potentially fall out of the top 10 as far as his ADP, I think it could be him.

Speaker 1: 16:50

Wow, yeah, I mean I don't disagree with you there. Just looking at the past couple of years missing games you know you could always depend on Derek Henry playing the entire season, even when they were out of playoffs.

Speaker 2: 17:01

He did not care he was always in the game. Yeah, like I said, this guy's always in top shape, comes into camp ready to go, and you know, listen, I could be wrong here. You know, this is just speculation on my part, but I just based on age and the touches over the last five, six years and some injury risk there. You know, I think that's a guy that could, you know, potentially decline over this year.

Speaker 1: 17:25

Absolutely, especially in PPR leagues, with guys you know they're utilizing these backs as almost receivers. That's not Derek Henry strong. I know they did it a little bit last year and it looked awkward as hell.

Speaker 2: 17:38

Him trying to catch the ball. Yeah, 33 reception last year, which is the most he's had in the last five years.

Speaker 1: 17:43

Absolutely, and none of them were pretty. I mean, each catch was not smooth Exactly.

Speaker 2: 17:51

All right, who's your second guy? My second guy is Josh Jacobs, and listen, you know he's still obviously a younger guy, but I just I'm saying that only because at this point he's not in camp, which equals, you know, an injury concern for me if he should come back in the next week or two. And it kind of goes back to last year and I look at last year. I believe he was number one last year, number one running back last year and had 340 rushing attempts, which is a lot. But I look at, I kind of did a breakdown here of why he had 340 rushing attempts.

Speaker 2: 18:34

I think one is a couple of guys were hurt from the wide receiver, tight end position Waller and Renfro, which I think gave him more opportunities. So maybe those numbers are a little inflated, but I think he's gonna go for 1600 yards again. Probably not. Renfro was healthy this year, you know. So that's a guy that I think right now I think Fantasy Pros has his ADP at running back eight overall, 23. I think it's a guy just that could slip a little bit. I still think he's a top 15 back, don't get me wrong, but I just, you know, just based on the situation now, with him not being in camp, I think he could, you know, maybe potentially fall out of the top 10 there.

Speaker 1: 19:22

Yeah, of course. I mean, and you look at, you know his average of what he's done his first few years in a league, minus last year. There's gonna be that natural regression back to a little bit more normal of what he's been doing. So, like you said, I agree with the top 15. I don't think he finishes as a number one running back this year. I think that was just a. He got so much work.

Speaker 2: 19:43

Yeah, I would be shocked if he ends up, you know, number one again. But listen, it all comes down to, you know, let's be honest, you could talk to about any top 10 player at their position. It all comes down to staying healthy and the situation that they're in now. Like I said, he's in a situation where he's not even in camp yet.

Speaker 2: 20:03

I'm just afraid same with Jonathan Taylor, not in there yet if they bring him back you know, there's that injury risk there where maybe you know you get the hamstring or you you know you tweak the ankle and you know that would not come out of most likely a top 10 finish. So I, like I said, that's just my two picks there.

Speaker 1: 20:21

My curiosity, especially with Jacobs. They went out and got Jimmy Garoppolo for quarterback. He already knows Josh McDaniel's system. Do they go back? I mean kind of that new England style of offense with the quick passing that Tom Brady made so official because Garoppolo was very good at that. I mean that was why when he was traded he went for. I believe it was a second round pick, so that is a high trade for a backup quarterback to make your start. He was always accurate. He was good at those short intermediate passes. He has a quick release. Do they do? They tend to go to that round? I'm curious. You know, dude, you know last year you didn't have that. You had Derek Carr who likes to throw the ball down the field.

Speaker 2: 20:59

Right, that's a really good point and I think they do go back to that. To be honest with you, jimmy G is not that guy that's gonna throw it 60 yards down the field like a Derek Carr. So, and you got Devonte Adams, you got Ren Froh, yeah you know. And hopefully Josh Jacobs out of the backfield he can catch some passes. I think maybe they do go that route. Yeah.

Speaker 2: 21:19

Jimmy G is not that guy that is gonna go too vertical on you, like I said, like a Derek Carr. So yeah, I think it is possible that they kind of go that route.

Speaker 1: 21:28

Yeah, Well, I mean two good tricks. I know I looked at both of them as my guys to fall out of the top 10. I did go with the two that I'm most concerned about. We kind of touched on one earlier with the Jonathan Taylor, just the contract situation. You know, is he gonna be in camp? Health wise, everybody. It just seems like that whole situation somebody's lying. Who is he hurt? Is he not hurt? Is this just strategy to get a contract?

Speaker 2: 21:55

I mean that's my biggest question.

Speaker 2: 21:58

That's a good question and I think when this whole thing came out with the contract situation, I believe there was some comments made. You know, from the colt side of it he has an ankle injury. Then he kind of said, no, there was no ankle injury. Now there kind of is an ankle injury. I mean, you don't know what you're hearing, but yeah, I could clearly see Jonathan Taylor maybe not being in the top 10. No, and like you said, it's based on the fact that he's not even in camp. Who knows if he's even gonna play.

Speaker 2: 22:32

Exactly he's made to come and he'd hold out. So who knows? But yeah, it's got to monitor that situation, yeah you definitely got a monitor.

Speaker 1: 22:42

I'm just basing. If he does end up being a colt if there is no trade partner out there and say he does play the season he plays with the Colts he's got the two negative factors working for him. Usually what hurts running backs are rookie QBs, because they don't check down the ball a lot. So now you take away the catches. And also it's mobile quarterbacks because they're gonna vulture a lot of touchdowns and some rushing yards. He's got both.

Speaker 2: 23:05

Yeah, and to me that hurt some big time. Yeah for sure, the situation there in Indianapolis is not good for him and I agree with your two points. You know, with a running quarterback like that in Indianapolis and the fact that I'm not a big fan of Anthony Richardson, I'm sorry, yeah, I'm not a fan.

Speaker 1: 23:27

We both talk about it. Yeah, I'm not a fan.

Speaker 2: 23:32

I didn't think he was that great at Florida and I think there's a lot of growth that needs done there.

Speaker 1: 23:39

Oh, absolutely.

Speaker 2: 23:40

And like you said in a push-up I think Taylor just said it bad situation If he dies to stay.

Speaker 1: 23:45

So I mean, did you see, I think, did you see Pittman get hurt last night in the Colts game? I did not. I did not see that he was wide open and the pass was so bad he had literally had to try to fall backwards to try to catch this thing and then he had to come out of the game. I was like man you're so bad and so inaccurate, you hurt your receiver, yeah yeah.

Speaker 2: 24:06

Yeah so.

Speaker 1: 24:07

I mean that's why I was never big. I'm never big on Anthony. Now can you get there, possibly? Listen, I never say never. People can get better at this. But right now I'm not a big Richardson fan, especially for the time being. I was actually quite shocked when they named him the starter so early in the preseason.

Speaker 2: 24:24

Yeah, like I said, I'm just I'm not a fan. You know, I take a lot of teams and it seems to me this way that they kind of look at. You know he had the chiseled body and you know. You know you got to look at the intangibles there. You got to look at, you know, the accuracy and the system that he played in and his stats and all these things that come into play. You know.

Speaker 1: 24:46

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 24:47

There's a lot of quarterbacks out there that aren't chiseled and Ben Rothesberger wasn't chiseled but you know he was a solid quarterback. The guys you know Hall of Fame quarterback. You know there was a lot of players out there. Tom Brady, you know Tom Brady didn't have the have the chiseled body. No, brady's quarterback of all time, exactly. So I mean you know you got to look at, you got to look at other things than just the chiseled body and how they look and how fast they are. Yeah, it's, it's. Look at the stats. Yeah, look at the stats. Look at all the other other things that go with that. So I don't know.

Speaker 1: 25:18

Definitely not a bodybuilder contest. It's football. So yeah it's going to be curious, absolutely.

Speaker 2: 25:22

But I think that definitely hurts.

Speaker 1: 25:23

Jonathan Taylor, just bar none. Having both those mobile QB and rookie QB, I think he falls out of the top 10.

Speaker 2: 25:29

I like it.

Speaker 1: 25:31

My second guy was Ramondri Stevenson with the Elliott signing. I was big on Stevenson when they signed Zeke. That really drew concern from me, because why would you sign Ezekiel Elliott? What was he good at last year? What makes you want to sign this year? He was very efficient inside the 20. That's that's going to vulture those touchdowns away.

Speaker 2: 25:56

Yeah, if I'm not mistaken, Zeke had 12 rushing touchdowns last year.

Speaker 1: 26:01

Something like that. Yeah, I believe it was 12.

Speaker 2: 26:04

I believe it was 12 rushing touchdowns last year. Listen, Zeke's only 28, I think 27, eight years old. I think the guy still has some stuff left. Maybe he doesn't have the speed like he did anymore. If you give me him inside the 10 yard line, I'll take him all day long.

Speaker 1: 26:21

Take him all day long, of course. Yeah he, and he was really good at that. He's not going to get you those big breakout plays like he used to, but he can certainly. He can certainly move a pile and he he's shifty enough still to to wiggle his way into the end zone.

Speaker 2: 26:34

No doubt about it and I agree with you. I think it does hurt from Andre Stevenson from that standpoint. Yeah. But yeah, I think that's that's a good, that's a good pick. As far as you know, some regression there, I agree with that.

Speaker 1: 26:47

Yeah, and the fact that you know, listen, zeke can still catch the ball. He did, you know, he caught the ball in college. He wasn't shy, he didn't get a whole bulk of it when they got so many ballered in Dallas, but he, he's still a phenomenon. I think he can catch the ball in the backfield, so I think that takes on. You know, that's another factor that takes away from Stevenson that Zeke can do everything that Stevenson can do. Just a little bit of an older running back, stevenson, I believe, still has no more the upside as far as pop for long long rush, for sure, for sure.

Speaker 2: 27:17

Yeah, I'm looking at. Actually I'm looking at. Sorry, I didn't know.

Speaker 1: 27:20

No, you're fine.

Speaker 2: 27:21

I actually looking at Zeke's stats here, and last year he only rushed for about 875 yards, but he did have 12 touchdowns. Yeah. Which you know is solid. You know very few received. He only had 17 receptions last year. But yeah, the rushing there, like you said, inside the top, inside the 10 yard line, I'll take them all day long. I still think he has those legs. Yeah, he's.

Speaker 1: 27:47

I mean he's, like you said, 28 years old, so he's at the back end where he's starting to run, but I still think there's enough juice in there. Where the right role he can, he can lengthen his career and I believe this is a good role for him. When we're Stevenson can carry the bulk of it, but when he's getting the touchdowns over Stevenson that's I mean that's going to hurt you.

Speaker 2: 28:06

For sure, for sure. No doubt about it.

Speaker 1: 28:08

All right. So now we're going to pick some sleeper picks at her guys that are outside the top 10 that we feel, with the rights you know, things falling into place could end up in a top 10 running back situation at the end of the year. George, go ahead and what we'll? Start with you. What's your first one?

Speaker 2: 28:26

Well, my first one is probably my highest running back not probably, but it's definitely my highest running back outside of the top 10. And that is Jameer Gibbs. I am completely sold on this guy. I think he falls into a perfect situation a solid offense, a very, very good offensive line. You factor in that he's gonna be able to run with a David Montgomery where they're gonna be able to switch him in and out. It's almost gonna be like an Alvin Camaro Mark Ingram situation at the Saints five, six, seven years ago. They were. Alvin Camaro was damn near unstoppable. He was just ridiculous. And I get the feeling this guy is gonna catch 50 plus passes out of the backfield.

Speaker 2: 29:16

I've probably run for yeah, plus rush for another, you know 7, 800 yards. I think this guy could definitely be in the top 10 by season's end, absolutely. I think. He's like they didn't waste their first round pick on this guy to sit him. They're obviously gonna play him Every report out of camp. He's been fantastic, his blocking ability has been better and, like I said, the guy's you know four, three speed. I believe. I think he's definitely the guy that I think could be inside the top 10 for sure.

Speaker 1: 29:50

Oh yeah, I mean not a lot of people realize this because it wasn't. It was done by committee. But do you realize that the Detroit Lions, running back room as far as a group, was the highest fantasy scoring group in the league?

Speaker 2: 30:06

I didn't know they were the highest. I knew they were probably in the top five, you know. And another thing is they lose Jamal Williams who I believe rushed for 16 or 17 touchdowns last year. He's now in the world, but you know that frees up, you know, a lot of space for Gibbs and David Montgomery. But Gibbs, I just think he is a special player and, like I said, I think the offense there is perfect for him. Goff is the solid quarterback. Is he a top? You know? 10 or 15 quarterback? Probably not. But I just think the system is right there. And you know, with I'm on Ross A Brown, I just I think that offense is gonna fly and I think Gibbs is just in the perfect situation there.

Speaker 1: 30:50

Yeah, call me, I'm calling me crazy with the new weapons that they have there in Detroit, the offensive coordinator, who was probably one of the best in the business and it was in just Jared Goff in its own right Last year actually, was he top 10 quarterback in fantasy? Okay, yeah, we did that. It was number 10, exactly, and with the addition of these weapons and their offensive line looks great and that defense, I can see everybody. I think this is an offense. You want a piece of? If you're drafting.

Speaker 2: 31:22

I know I do. Yeah, if I get a piece of Gibbs or St Brown or even Goff, I mean I take, you know is Goff, you know his. I don't know what his ADP is, but you know ADP is not. He's probably not a top 10 or 12 quarterback, I wouldn't think.

Speaker 1: 31:36

No, I believe he is going like top I believe number, I believe top 20, but he's I think it's like 16 or something. I'm gonna look that up really quick.

Speaker 2: 31:44

Yeah, again, again, I had to give. So I just like I said I just don't keep repeating myself, but I just think he's in the perfect situation there with David Montgomery I think it's a two headed monster for sure and top five offensive line, just like they were last year, better defense. And I, like I said, I just I'm very, very, very high on Jamar Jamar Gibbs.

Speaker 1: 32:07

All right, goff is going 17. He's got a number 17. And yeah he's a 17th rated quarterback in ADP.

Speaker 2: 32:14

Yeah, and I think that's probably right. I mean I'm sure that's you know. I mean that's a fair that's a fair.

Speaker 1: 32:19

That's a fair position for him to be going. But sure.

Speaker 1: 32:22

All right, you gave me one, I'm gonna. I'm gonna go ahead and give you one. I really like this player. I know a lot of people are down on him this year, but I like the offense. I want a piece of it. If I'm looking at somebody that right now is outside of the top 10, that could get there because of the workload. Like we've talked about, workload is huge If you're getting the volume. I love Joe Mixon simply because there is nobody else in that, in that backfield room.

Speaker 2: 32:50

Couldn't agree more and it and it and it and this kind of just goes back to the Detroit line and Jamar Gibbs thing Great offense, solid offense of line and there's not much competition. I mean, we know it's gonna be Gibbs and Monty in Detroit, just like it's gonna be Mixon in and there's not, like you said, there's not much in Cincinnati and there's not much competition. I believe Chris Evans is the backup but yeah, mixon, if you look at it over, you know, over the last, you know four, five years, mixon has always been. He's one of those like steady Eddie guys. He's just consistent every year and he's gonna catch some passes for you and he's obviously gonna get the rushing in and hopefully you know lots of the rushing touchdowns. But yeah, I like that a lot, I like that pick a lot.

Speaker 1: 33:34

And I love it. And every year you see him. They do design plays for Mixon to get the ball inside. You know, inside the red zone for touchdowns and you know Joe Burrow is not a running quarterback, so you know it's it's. It's a really good situation for Joe Mixon really not having I think he's a clear three down back. Yeah well, chris Evans probably spell him here and there, but I think Mixon is a guy that you could definitely see climb into the top 10 by the end of the year.

Speaker 2: 34:00

And not only that. Sumajee P Ryan's gone. I mean, Sumajee P Ryan caught 50 or 60 passes last year. You know they say Chris Evans is gonna catch, is gonna get some of that, but I gotta believe a lot of it's gonna go to Mixon, and with P Ryan not being there, I think that makes Mixon even more valuable. So yeah, she should be curious to see what goes on there. But yeah, I couldn't agree with, couldn't agree with more. I think that's a solid, a solid choice there, for you know, I think that's somebody that's probably.

Speaker 1: 34:29

I think he's still going in the 15 range. You know running back 15, but I can definitely see him climb into that top 10 easily with the workload he can possibly get if he stays healthy this season, of course, of course, all right, but who's your long shot that you could see making the top 10 possibly?

Speaker 2: 34:47

Well, and this is a real long shot. There's a few of them out there, but I don't think this guy could be, you know, let's say, top 10, but I just he has. I think he's in a good situation and I'm probably gonna get beat up for this one. But I actually like Rashad White for Tampa Bay, and the reason I say that is Leonard Fournette's gone. Okay, leonard Fournette same thing cut a lot of passes out of the backfield, solid rushing. There's no competition there for Rashad White Now. Granted, he doesn't have Tom Brady anymore. Yeah, he has.

Speaker 2: 35:25

Yeah, drastic decline there in quarterback with Baker Mayfield, and I've been on this show a couple of times and everybody knows my opinion on Baker Mayfield. I'm not a fan, but but I just get the fit, you know, I just he has a very. They have a pretty solid offensive line still and I just think, without Leonard Fournette and the fact that I don't think Todd Bowles is going to have Baker Mayfield thrown 40 times like Tom Brady did, I think they are going to utilize Rashad White a lot more. So I just, I just, you know, I just think he's a guy that could I think he's going. Let me see if I could find that I think he's going 28. Okay, so his, yeah, so his, his ADP is 28. I got to believe just on volume, and obviously it depends on how, but I just get the feeling that he could be a 15 to 17 range guy by the end of the season, I think. You know, I think he's in a good situation there. Like I said, no competition.

Speaker 1: 36:30

No, he's gone.

Speaker 2: 36:32

Ronald Jones is gone. All those guys that were there are gone, and it's his backfield. You know he owns it. So I just think it's not. I think he's going to ADP, I just think he's. He could be much better than where he's he's. He's ranked at.

Speaker 1: 36:46

Oh, absolutely Absolutely. Now I mean there's big, there's huge upside with Rashad White if he does get the bulk of the workload. I mean you're gonna. I don't think you're going to have a guy with a huge upside, but you are going to have a guy with a very solid high floor that you can count on a weekly basis. So if you were to get like a high upside running back early to pair it with like somebody like a Rashad White would not be a bad thing.

Speaker 2: 37:08

Yeah, like I said, I just, I just think based on where he's ranked, I think I think he could, I think it could be a top 15 to 18 guy. So I think the ADP is is, is you know?

Speaker 1: 37:23

a little Going at what, yeah, 28.

Speaker 2: 37:26

28. Yeah, running back ADP correct, that's correct. Yeah, by ADP. Yeah, he's not. He's not better than some of these guys out there. I just I have a hard time believing he's the 28th rank running back over some. So you know.

Speaker 1: 37:44

Yeah, especially a guy who's going to get the majority of the workload. I mean, that's that's tough to imagine. A lot of these guys, like DeAndre Swift is ranked higher. You know, alvin Kamara is ranked higher and he's got a suspension coming Cam.

Speaker 2: 37:58

Acres. Yeah, I just like I said, I just think he's in a good situation. There's no competition. He has a pretty solid offensive line. Like I said, I'm not a I'm not a Baker fan, but no, no, you know, with with Tom with it, like I said, with with Todd Bulls not wanting make make I'm sure to throw the ball 30, 40 times a game. I think it just creates more opportunities for Rashad White and I just think he could beat his ADP.

Speaker 1: 38:21

Absolutely. So I agree with you on that one. I think there's too much, too much volume there to ignore. My guy is actually the one going right ahead of your guy. My guy is Isaiah.

Speaker 1: 38:31

Pacheco and he is going 27th and 80 P for his monks running backs. He has got huge upside, just simply on the fact that I believe his offense is explosive If they use him as the every downback, which is, you know, remains to be seen. The offensive line there, according to pro football focus, is ranked number three in the league. So you've got a great old line there ahead of him. And, man, when that guy runs, that guy runs hard, he runs like he hates the ground. Yeah.

Speaker 1: 39:06

But Isaiah Pacheco, I think if they utilize him more I could definitely see him Like. I agree, maybe not all the way to the top 10, but I definitely think he can be inside that top 15 running back in the league.

Speaker 2: 39:20

He's a guy that runs like. I like to say he runs angry. Yes, he wants to punish you as much as he possibly can, and that might be a little bit of a downfall. Really, I mean. I know he's coming off. I think he's going to be shoulder injury surgeries. But I agree with you. I mean he showed some things last year, especially midseason through the end, and I don't know how much competition there really is there. Clyde Edwards-Glair.

Speaker 1: 39:45

I think, leonard Prince. Yeah, I mean, there's not a whole lot left. I mean, they got really McKissick, didn't they? Or did they bring him back?

Speaker 2: 39:53

No, mckissick is gone. Yeah, no, that wasn't, yeah, mckissick, that wasn't McKissick, it was McKinnon.

Speaker 1: 40:02

McKinnon Jerick McKinnon. Yeah, I'm sorry it was McKinnon. I apologize. Yeah, it was McKinnon. Mckissick was with Washington, that's right.

Speaker 2: 40:07

Correct with what. Yeah, but yeah, you're right, McKinnon is gone. No, mckinnon's not gone, he's still there. Mckinnon, jerick McKinnon.

Speaker 1: 40:14

They bring him back. I know they were holding off. I think they were looking for a replacement, but I think when I think they.

Speaker 2: 40:20

I think Jerick McKinnon is still there.

Speaker 1: 40:22

Yeah, it was when Pacheco had to have that surgery. I think that's when they re-signed him just for insurance purposes, because that's. Pacheco. He can catch the ball, he can do everything they need he's. You know, I know they went with Edward Soler thinking that guy was gonna be the next big thing, but yeah, I mean that really hasn't panned out and so Pacheco, pacheco is pretty good speed.

Speaker 2: 40:45

Like I said, I'm a little concerned maybe with the injury problem there and really it's because of the way the guy runs. Like I said, he just runs angry, he just wants to punch you, but yeah, I mean, I think he's in a good situation there.

Speaker 1: 40:57

Oh, absolutely, for sure, Absolutely. Oh, just like the show goes full, full circle here, do you know that CEH was drafted ahead of Jonathan Taylor in the draft?

Speaker 2: 41:07

That's shocking. Yeah, that's shocking. I did not know that.

Speaker 1: 41:10

Yeah, ceh was drafted higher than Jonathan Taylor. They both went in the same draft and yeah, jonathan Taylor went after CEH Woo man, could you imagine that team with Jonathan Taylor on there?

Speaker 2: 41:21

Oh my God, Freaking, absolutely freaking.

Speaker 1: 41:25

So yeah, but yeah, guys listen, that's about all the time we've got for the day. George, I want to say a big, huge thank you to you. Thanks for coming on the show man. It's a lot of fun having you.

Speaker 2: 41:36

Hey, I love it, Something I've never really done. I've never done any kind of podcast before in the past. I've been on three times. I love it every time and fantasy football for me is kind of like a passion for me. I wouldn't say I'm great at it, but I just I enjoy it so much every year when it comes around Draft days and all the research and stuff that I do, I just it's just, I'm in my element, I enjoy it and I'm glad I'd be more than happy to come back anytime you want.

Speaker 1: 42:04

Appreciate it, buddy. All right, man. I really thanks for the time today. Guys, you guys got a lot of drafts coming up. I know a lot of people are drafting this weekend and throughout the week. Listen, I think I don't know. George, you want to come back next week? We do a mock draft.

Speaker 2: 42:20

Let's do it.

Speaker 1: 42:21

Yeah, we'll do a mock draft online and we'll do that one and that'll be fun and we'll talk about why we're pricking our team and how we're setting everything up. We'll do that one. I love it All right, guys. Well, thanks again, george, and listen guys, have a great draft. If you're drafting this weekend, we'll see you next time on the biggest guys. Locker room guys, thanks guys.