Chiefs vs. 49ers: Super Bowl Showdown, Betting Odds, and Prop Bet Picks
Feb 09, 2024
Jesse
Prepare to tackle the Super Bowl frenzy head-on with yours truly, Jesse, and the ever-insightful Nicky B! We're tearing down the betting lines and laying bare the odds that have the Chiefs edging out in ticket counts, while the 49ers catch the eye of high-stakes gamblers. Nicky B throws down his expert take on a defense-dominated match-up that might just leave the over/under in the dust. Plus, we're breaking down why history won't repeat itself in this gridiron clash, despite past Super Bowl glories, and pinpointing where the 49ers might just falter against the Chiefs' relentless ground game.
Strap in for a rundown on the meticulous prep that could make or break this year's contenders. Feel the intensity as we question whether Steve Spagnuolo can recreate his Giants-era magic to toughen up the Chiefs' defense, and ponder if the 49ers are getting cold feet—or just cold weather—in their Super Bowl walkthroughs. I'm not leaving you without some juicy prop bet action, sharing my insider picks including Kelce's potential to dazzle with stats and halftime hijinks. And as the final whistle blows on this episode, we're already eyeing the future, teasing a post-Super Bowl breakdown and early plays for Dynasty League draft domination.
Prepare to tackle the Super Bowl frenzy head-on with yours truly, Jesse, and the ever-insightful Nicky B! We're tearing down the betting lines and laying bare the odds that have the Chiefs edging out in ticket counts, while the 49ers catch the eye of high-stakes gamblers. Nicky B throws down his expert take on a defense-dominated match-up that might just leave the over/under in the dust. Plus, we're breaking down why history won't repeat itself in this gridiron clash, despite past Super Bowl glories, and pinpointing where the 49ers might just falter against the Chiefs' relentless ground game.
Strap in for a rundown on the meticulous prep that could make or break this year's contenders. Feel the intensity as we question whether Steve Spagnuolo can recreate his Giants-era magic to toughen up the Chiefs' defense, and ponder if the 49ers are getting cold feet—or just cold weather—in their Super Bowl walkthroughs. I'm not leaving you without some juicy prop bet action, sharing my insider picks including Kelce's potential to dazzle with stats and halftime hijinks. And as the final whistle blows on this episode, we're already eyeing the future, teasing a post-Super Bowl breakdown and early plays for Dynasty League draft domination.
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Speaker 1:
All right, everybody. Welcome back to the Vegas guys locker room. I'm your host, Jesse. I am here with a special guest today. It is Nicky B in the house. How you doing, buddy.
Speaker 2:
Well how you doing. Everything is great Getting ready for this Super Bowl weekend. Can't wait for the game.
Speaker 1:
Oh man, I'm sure you're dying. I bet you probably had some fun with some of the people betting in the sportsbook over there.
Speaker 2:
I'm having fun with everybody right now, from the people in the poker room having a little different take than the people in the book and in the pit. It's just, it's amazing.
Speaker 1:
It's got to be. It's so funny, is this? I mean, with the spread being so close, I mean it's got to be a split decision, are you? I mean, what do you say, what do you know? What do you say From the betting side, from these guys, in regards to this big game?
Speaker 2:
So, it absolutely is split. Definitely this is a sharp, sharp have definitely a different opinion than the public right now. Ticket action we're slightly seeing the ticket count favoring the chiefs. We do have a 49 contingent in this town I think some of the station books so they will bet the Niners but, like all our big bets have been on the 49ers. So that's what's really split in the action, the sharp stuff. We like the 49ers while the public is going to be on KC. It looks like this week should see, should see a lot more betting and starting tomorrow, with people now starting to check into the hotel, the biggest thing so far is the over. The over is the one that's getting at the most and I didn't make sense to me at first but on paper it's starting to make a lot more sense. I mean, look the keys, even though their offense has been struggling this year. The chiefs on paper you got Mahomes, you got Kelsey, you got that famous offense. And on the other side, like we have seen what the Niners can do when they're when their role and they can put 42 points on the best teams. So pretty pretty is playing on all star level. And you got McCaffrey D Bo, you got all those Niners there, you got all those weapons.
Speaker 1:
Oh yeah, I mean I think I talked about. I talked about a little yesterday on the show and I know the Niners are averaging about 29 points a game and the chiefs are averaging about 22. So I it's a pretty good line that was said I did take the under. I said I was going to take the under in the game just because I think it's going to be a more defensive battle than than most.
Speaker 2:
So you wouldn't be the only one. So the Sharps are looking at that line and that's why none of these lines have really moved too much. The whole weekend, like unlike some other Super Bowl is, the Sharps have been looking at that. Under the second that creeps up, the 48, the Sharps hammer, hammer. The under, public likes over and the public is definitely overtaken the sharps on this one. The public likes the over, but there's been some good bets on the under and I'm personally also taking the under at 47 and a half.
Speaker 1:
I mean, you know, listen, you know Fooie is over there because you know he's a big nice fan, he's doing the Fooie special, he's taking the Niners and the over every week.
Speaker 2:
Niners is not a bad bet. I'm not taking it, but the Niners is not a bad bet. Analytically, it's sound like I can't take the over after after watching everything. Just no way.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, I'm curious. I'm just curious to see. I mean, I know the big narrative everybody rematch, but there's not a whole lot of guys left on these teams from that prior Super Bowl. I mean, you're talking what was that, almost you know, four years ago? That's, that's a. That's a huge different landscape. There's only a few key guys on the boat team still there.
Speaker 2:
Well, the cheese have to, I think, I think. But she's have to manage the game. They're actually the ones that got to play the possession game. Run the football. I think that running game is the X factor there. Use Pacheco, get an early lead and manage the game and just run the ball with Pacheco. It is there. The Niners have struggled in both the playoff games and I'm more of a recently advised person. I'm a Giants fan. I watch what the Giants have done when they make the playoffs and it's there. The Niners defense is not strong in stopping the run and both teams, in my belief, choked those games away. The Packers and Lions way more than the Packers, and they were running the football at will. I bet the Lions were averaging almost 6.3 yards a carry and the West went away from the run on the second half.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, that was curious to see how the Lions I mean they controlled the game. And that's where I was like, ok, we got to get a score here and we got to get a stop or a turnover in order to get back in this game. And as soon as he fumbled, it was like right, when they fumbled that football and turned it over, it was like they abandoned all run games.
Speaker 2:
It was, yeah, it was the day panics in that game. It was before down and Josh Reynolds, caught in the Niners, scored, had the momentum and then the fumble right after that and they went on full panic and self-destruct move.
Speaker 1:
Oh, absolutely. I mean, especially when they went to tie and I think I touched on this on the shows when you had a chance to tie it, that could have stopped the bleeding in the panic, because then you could have reset and said, ok, it's a brand new ball game, just get back to what our game plan was. But instead you go for it and then you don't get it. Now everybody's in extreme panic mode.
Speaker 2:
I'll be honest, I talk about a lot of my racing sports work manager, mary. The one that actually annoyed me was the first goal for it on 4th down. Well, you had a chance to make it back to three scores Because the momentum of the game was shifting to the Niners and you had a chance to dent it. If you just put that field goal and make it back to three scores and honestly it's a three-point game in the end the 74th down, I mean they were on full self-destruct mode at that point it didn't really bother me too much. At that point you had to do something. It's just the Niners, which is all. The momentum was on the Niners. At that point you had to do something to change it up. Yeah, you could have tied the game. Honestly, you should have probably kicked both field goals on both 4th downs. But the first one really annoyed me Because they had three-scored game and you still have the Niners kind of reeling at it. Score once, but you still kind of have the Niners reeling. I would have just kept taking points at that point.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, especially when you had that big lead. I mean, just keep getting points, just make it harder and harder. I agree.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, that's a good song. Did you see the analytics on that too? It was a 0.3% edge on going for it and kicking the field goal.
Speaker 1:
Oh yeah, that's right. I did. Yeah, I did see it. It was literally like I mean, it was a. I didn't see the advantage of going for it. That's right. There was really no big advantage for going for it on that it was.
Speaker 2:
I mean at that point, everyone, I think, still thought the Lions are going to win, but like 0.5%, get the points.
Speaker 1:
You know what? And I had this one. You'll enjoy this one. I give all the credit to the turnaround in that ball game to Jace, because I was sitting there and of course that half I called my old man and he was over at my father's house for the week prior for the Green Bay and 49ers game. Of course, jody's a big Packers fan and so I was like yeah. I can't believe this. And he goes. You know your son was rooting for the Packers wearing his Niners gear last week. I said what I said get over here, took off all the Niners gear at halftime and that was the comeback you tainted it all son, you just tainted it all.
Speaker 2:
That is awesome. That is a good story.
Speaker 1:
Then, of course, I bought my Super Bowl gear and he said you get me one. I said no, you're going to taint that too.
Speaker 2:
That is awesome. I mean, when we worked together, you had some heartbreaks, oh my god, that's not the only.
Speaker 1:
Don't take up those old wounds, those are still oh god, that's not over there.
Speaker 2:
Oh the fuck. I bought Super Bowl trophy on one of those wounds, so I can't you know.
Speaker 1:
That was the one where we just couldn't even feel the punt. Oh Jesus Christ, oh flashbacks. Now.
Speaker 2:
I totally reflect. It was 90 players probably on that field. 89 played well. I remember talking to you right on the cross game 89 played well.
Speaker 1:
We had that one puck return Just walked it up, just couldn't catch the fucking ball, my god they kept putting it back out there. Oh, lordy, oh, taking back bad memories. Yep, I tried to drink those memories away, but hey.
Speaker 2:
Go ahead.
Speaker 1:
No, I was going to ask. So who do you think has the biggest advantage in this game, and why would you think that?
Speaker 2:
I am totally on board with the Kansas City team's running game now. Now I put an asterisk on this Now as a giant span. I know Andy Reed, you know sometimes he likes to get away from that run, so that's a big after. But I think that I think right now, recently, recent bias that the Kansas City Chiefs running game Pacheco. I think he's the second best weapon after Kelsey and Kelsey's known. So I think the Niners are really going to attempt to take away Kelsey and they got the linebackers to do it. But just seeing those two playoff games, I think if you right get that early lead and right Pacheco which I think the Chiefs are able to do they will control that game. You look at the A&E Read and those three playoff games. They it's split, it's been 91, so 103 passing attempts. So they're not putting it all on the homes. Granted, they've been getting out on a lead every time, but that's how the Chiefs are playing. They managed the game on offense and let Steve Spagnola in that defense role.
Speaker 1:
Yeah.
Speaker 2:
And we know about Steve Spagnola. He was the defensive coordinator for the Giants when they stopped the undefeated Patriots about a decade ago.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, yeah, he knows that. He definitely knows how to stop a solid offense. That's for sure, because that was probably one of the best offenses ever to play football and he stopped them dead in the tracks in that Super Bowl.
Speaker 2:
Absolutely. I mean the Patriots scored 14 points, seven of it at the end of the game, so they couldn't have been football at all against the Giants. And this defense, this Kansas City defense, looked like that Giants defense. And he's got those weapons, he's got shut down corners and sneed. He's got Chris Jones, he's blown up games. Oh yeah, it's going to be tougher to Niners who you know when you're, when you're listening, like even when you listen to this week, like the Niners, are they even practicing hard?
Speaker 1:
It's been an issue. I know the whole practice field thing has been a huge issue because of all the pain we had.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, I've been listening. I listened to New York Sports Radio and you know Boomer is on in the morning and he's been on the radio all week saying that this is a bigger deal with the Niners than people expected to be.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, yeah. That was I know they were complaining about that, which I mean. I can't believe that we never upgraded the facilities here. You know, you don't know the to even try, knowing we were going to host a Super Bowl.
Speaker 2:
I just don't understand why they can't both practice at the Las Vegas. Yeah the facilities, yeah that one brought a new or multi, multi, multi billion dollars into the trillion dollar company.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, that didn't make a whole lot of sense. I was like why? Okay, so it's rain, yeah, you know these outside. Why can't both of them use the indoor practice facility?
Speaker 2:
And I'll tell you, jesse, everyone knows about that, because when Amy Reed does his post game press conference after they beat the Ravens, he literally says that in the post game prep conference we are the home team and we get the practice at the Las Vegas Radar Facilities, which means the chiefs even knew yeah, oh yeah.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, that was another thing too. I was curious. I know a lot of people have asked me. Maybe you want to explain why does the Kansas City Chiefs get to be the home team? I think they alternate every year. Yeah, yeah, I think.
Speaker 2:
They just alternate ASC NFC. Yeah, that's what I said.
Speaker 1:
I think it's just back and forth. There's really no favorite to it. It just happens if you fall in that year, right.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, it's just. Yeah, I think they alternate ASC NFC teams. I think they used to be so hardcore about that. I think they even alternated the stadiums, like you'll have, like, this is the ASC stadiums here, and then they'll do an NFC stadium and an ASC stadium.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, I don't know if they do a New.
Speaker 2:
York and Los Angeles but yeah, I know Right.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, I don't know if they do the stadium swap, but I do believe they still do that the, the AFC NFC swap every year. You know, a lot of people don't don't get to be on, like even baseball. Baseball, the World Series, that's always determined by what the, the all star game, it used to be. Who knows what they're going to do.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, they've tinkered with it quite a bit. Yeah, pulled it up on my computer. Yeah, cause, uh, eagles would have been the home team last year. Who's in Phoenix so far? Like I said, that can go either way, so let's just say AFC NFC Raymond James. Yeah, so it looks like it's still maybe falling out.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, still falling the the old NFC pattern, nfc AFC pattern but yeah, yeah that's that one threw me off. That's right, because I forgot that, both the Chargers and the Rams with the sofi stadium. But come on, who really thinks that's the Chargers home?
Speaker 2:
I could actually say the stadiums was not it now, but they definitely alternate, yeah, so yeah.
Speaker 1:
I got one more question for you. So, knowing you've seen all these guys betting, what is your favorite bets to bet on the big game? I mean, what? What prop bets? Or do you just like to stay with, stay away from all that all together? What do you? What do you like?
Speaker 2:
so, looking at it, talking once again, talking over a little bit with my racist sports manager, we haven't seen any like real action on the prop bets, yeah, and I'd love to see what the action is gonna look like. So I mean, look, I'm all in on the Chiefs, I think, after all this. So I bet I've already bet Chiefs plus two Chiefs on the money line. I bet the under this. These prop bets are getting inflated, but some easy prop bets that can get you a little bit of money. The Travis Kelsey over 71 and a half receiving yards look at the Chiefs are gonna win. I know they're gonna shut down. They're gonna try to shut down Kelsey as much, but he's still gonna get. Is the shaco over 16 and a half Russian attempts oh, there, there's a, there's a good one. Yeah, because yeah, they're gonna play yeah, they're averaging 20 Russian attempts, and the only way he doesn't get it is if this becomes a name of law. And look this game on paper, so tight it can go either way but these are the ones I got and then I gotta, I gotta sell out. Okay. So I gotta, I gotta, I gotta, I gotta prop this up station casinos. Will Kelsey have more receptions than his pop star girlfriends? Total of 10 platinum albums? oh Jesus is that really a bad you can bet on the effort SCN Sports Plus, okay, anyway, oh my god, I did not know that.
Speaker 1:
I did not know that way to sneak that one in there. Buddy, good call on that one. I didn't even know. Now, when I watch this game, I'm gonna be counting the receptions, just to see if he has more now. It's gonna be embedded in my brain now. So there you go, folks. Hey, if you want to go bet the game on the STN app, that is a prop that you can take and have some fun with it. I thought you were gonna go with how many times they put her on the TV, cuz I'm I wonder if there's an overrunner on that thing.
Speaker 2:
I searched you some of the. I haven't searched you all that cause. That blue packet is pretty large. I'm going to grab it today, but I saw that one and I, and I read it in the news too. So that's our bet. And so 11 or more receptions is plus 500. Oh wow, 10 of 10 seconds is that plus three? 15, nine and less is minus three, 25 on paper. It should probably be less, but I'm going for a plus 500, going for a big he needs to show up as girlfriend, so he needs 11 catches.
Speaker 1:
I got you, oh man.
Speaker 2:
Especially since Taylor Swift kind of snuck them in the in the award ceremony. Like he didn't, she didn't say anything in the Grammys about.
Speaker 1:
Kelsey in the Grammys. Oh really, I didn't watch it so I can't. I didn't know I'm a nerd like that.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, you know, yeah, that's right. I forgot you love those award shows.
Speaker 1:
I forgot I forgot all about that.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, baby, there you go.
Speaker 1:
Watching the Grammys, watching a little Tay. Tay get some awards. Oh, good Lord.
Speaker 2:
Why do you want to say anything about Kelsey or the or the Super Bowl and not yeah?
Speaker 1:
in general right, and because that's what that was the big thing Like as soon as the game ended, they were like ooh, can Taylor Swift make it back from Tokyo to to watch the game live?
Speaker 2:
Oh God, I think that.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, yeah, it should be, it should be crazy. I mean I'm curious to see what the weekend brings. I know it's a it's it's going to be interesting with the the first time having it. Have you had a chance to go down to the NFL experience down there?
Speaker 2:
No, my plan is. My plan is Probably do it tonight while I still have some time, cause I, you know, I used to live in New York, so I don't care about eight million people being there, but but plan is to go down there and just kind of check it out and then bail immediately, because it could be eight million people there, oh yeah.
Speaker 1:
I know it was funny, cause I was like, yeah, I was thinking about bringing Jace down there, but to me I was like, oh, that's way too many people, not enough eyes on my son. I'm like, yeah, that's, that could end up badly. And I was like, no, maybe I'll check it out on my own, but you know how it is when I I'm only driving down the strip, parking probably going to cost me 300 bucks.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, we're losing our last free parking to a traffic camera. Yep One went up in a few months.
Speaker 1:
Oh God, don't remind me to put in that stupid baseball stadium. I don't know how that got approved we got the baseball in the stupid.
Speaker 2:
It's just a team that we're bringing in. Oh yeah, exactly no.
Speaker 1:
I agree. Yeah, You're a hundred percent right and it's a guy who got and how did they get that over? If he ever wants to renovate the stadium, we got to pay him for it. Oh, that was funny.
Speaker 2:
I don't know, I was just starving for sports, even though the Golden Age always be our team. Yeah, exactly, and the Raiders and the A's they're just there.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, exactly, they're just there.
Speaker 2:
The Raiders and the A's are good tourist attractions. Yeah, that's that is true, that is true yeah.
Speaker 1:
I mean it is. That's the biggest thing, that's the biggest beef I know the Raiders all have. Is that? Going to home games is like? It's almost like being when Sandy on when the Chargers played in San Diego you get more fans for the other team? I mean kidding me.
Speaker 2:
Well, the biggest home crowd for the Raiders every year is when they play in LA against the Chargers.
Speaker 1:
Yes, there you go.
Speaker 2:
There you go, exactly, that's the only, it's the Chargers.
Speaker 1:
The Chargers could never have a huge home field advantage. I'd never.
Speaker 2:
No wonder they don't build a stadium they just borrow everybody else's but all right.
Speaker 1:
All right, well, I won't take up too much time. So thanks for joining the show, buddy. I really appreciate it, man.
Speaker 2:
Thank you. Anytime you need somebody, yeah, definitely hit me up. I'm going to enjoy doing this. I enjoy doing this right now and yeah anytime you need me.
Speaker 1:
All right buddy. All right man. Yeah, we'll do. We'll probably talk next week again. We'll break down the Super Bowl and see what we thought about the game.
Speaker 2:
You got it. Thank you, sir. How about a good?
Speaker 1:
one. All right, nick, talk to you later, buddy.
Speaker 2:
Talk to you later.
Speaker 1:
Bye. All right, Thanks for joining the show. Love having that guy on Lots of laughs man. It's going to be a great Super Bowl. Guys, Like I said before, be safe out there, Enjoy the game Friends, family. Remember to make your reservations. If you want to join and get to a hot spot and enjoy the game with a bunch of people, Make sure you get your reservations put in. Find out what they're charging, find out the details before you go out in a bound across town and miss out on some chances for some good spots. All right, guys, Well, we will see you next week. Like I said, next week we will start breaking down the fantasy football draft for Dynasty Leagues Hopefully we can get another guest spot from somebody and we'll also break down the Super Bowl results with my boy, Nicky B. Hopefully you guys join us. Thanks, guys, I'll see you guys next week.
