Navigating the Fantasy Football Draft Maze: Identifying Overvalued RBs

Ready to dodge those fantasy football draft day pitfalls? Tune in as I pull back the curtain on the five running backs you should approach with caution this season. The chatter begins with a critical eye on David Montgomery's dip in numbers and what it spells for the Detroit Lions' ground game. But that's just the first play in our strategy session. I'll also unveil why Alvin Kamara's fantasy stock might be slipping and how an under-the-radar Kendra Miller could be your secret weapon to victory. With an unwavering focus on value picks and savvy drafting tactics, I'm here to quarterback you to a winning season in your fantasy football league.

Swapping cleats for cleats of a different kind, I get real about stepping off the fantasy baseball mound - for now. Managing a roster day-to-day is a beast of its own, and I'm waving in a relief pitcher until I can recruit a co-host who breathes baseball stats. So, while my sights are set back on the gridiron, stay tuned for Sean's play-by-play on the top 10 picks in the NFL draft. He'll be dissecting mock drafts and their fantasy repercussions, ensuring you're in the know and ready to dominate your league. Don't miss the insider scoop that could give you the edge in your next fantasy football draft.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:07

All right, welcome back to another episode of the Vegas guys locker room question for you Are you preparing to dominate your fantasy football league this year? Because here at Vegas guys locker room, we are always attempting to do that. So today we're going to give you some tips and tricks and hopefully help you out in this year's coming fantasy football season. I'm your host, as always, jay, thanks for joining us today. And today we're going to get into our top five running backs that we believe you should keep an eye out and watch for them to fall down the rankings, and also our top five guys that we believe were a little bit set back last year but are looking for a nice spring into the top 20 this year. So, without further ado, we're going to get into this. So first, the top five of the guys I think you need to watch out for and be careful drafting came in at number 17 last year.

Speaker 1: 0:56

This is David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions. I think there's one thing you got to worry about with him, and the problem here is if you watch where his stats went last year, they really started tapering off, especially towards the end of the year. They were really trying to get Jameer Gibbs the ball. Get it to that pair of younger legs. Listen, is David Montgomery still going to be fantasy relevant? Absolutely. I truly believe that. I think he's going to be that inside the 10 guy. Maybe you're going to need touchdowns out of David Montgomery to probably make this count. And who knows, he's getting up there in the injuries last year kind of shown and if you follow the Detroit Lions you know what I'm talking about they really wanted to get Gibbs featured. He's just such an explosive back and I look for more of the same in this upcoming year. So be careful. Looking at David Montgomery, thinking, hey, maybe I can get some good points, because he did have a hell of a start to last season, but then towards the end of that season he started tapering off, did end up as the running back 17. I think that falls back into the backside. I think he falls somewhere in the range of 25 to 30 coming next year. So be careful. If it's a value pick, definitely you want to snag him because he's still going to be relevant, but he's probably not going to put the numbers up for you and be a league winner next year.

Speaker 1: 2:10

Next one is gonna is gonna shock a lot of people because well, I don't know if it's necessarily gonna shock anybody alvin camaro came in at number 11 last year and you could see that his metrics were starting to really taper off. Derrick carr in that group. There was a a lot of guys on New Orleans Saints that you thought were going to be fantasy relevant and with Derek Carr at the helm it just didn't come to fruition. I know I had him on my fantasy league last year. He kind of was disappointing. I thought towards the middle when he came back and it just started right back where it was left off. I thought I was going to dominate. And then you got later in the year and it just seemed to just not want to get there. Especially in the last couple of weeks Kamara just seemed to fall off. I think they might be heading in a different direction.

Speaker 1: 2:51

Will he still be part of the offense? I believe so. Is he going to be as involved as he has been in the past? I highly doubt that. Now he did finish it to number 11. I do think he takes a giant step back and falls out of the top 20, somewhere around the 21, 22 mark. I think that's where he's going to fit in. He'll probably fit in right next to those Pittsburgh running backs Jalen Warren and Najee Harris. Sorry you Steeler fans, I don't think those guys are moving anywhere up. But yeah, just be aware, if you can get him in a nice value pick late in the draft probably where you want to snag him up he will still be relevant. He's just not going to put up numbers you're thinking, but he'd be a good filler if somebody was to get hurt.

Speaker 1: 3:28

Especially if you're looking at a guy like Kendra Miller, who is a big body back and I really liked him. I talked about him earlier in a previous podcast. I really like him. This year I think he makes a come up. I think he gives a lot of carries over to him and a lot of action gives a lot of carries over to him and a lot of action. So if I'm grabbing a New Orleans running back, it's probably Kendra Miller. Just to take that risk Now the draft is upcoming, they could snag a running back there. I don't believe the running backs are as good as they were in drafts previous. So I really lean toward Kendra Miller getting a shot this year, seeing what they really have out of the kid, and I think you're going to see a dip off in Alvin Kamara.

Speaker 1: 4:06

Next one you're going to see is number six. He finished number six last year. Joe Mixon, I'm really curious to see where this goes. I don't know. That offense is a more explosive offense. Do you see Joe Mixon? He's getting up there in age. He's at that time where running backs usually tend to fall off. He did restructure his contract last year to stay with Cincinnati. He did put up good numbers. He was a solid guy. I mean finishing number six, remember. And these are PPR standings. Guys, according to Fantasy Pros, if you were in case wondering, I do think he falls out. I don't know if he falls as far as I think, but I think he could fall as far as number 20, number 21, somewhere in that range.

Speaker 1: 4:48

If this team tends to go with their wide receivers you know they just made the big trade for Stephon Diggs. They've got some good young talent Tank Dell, nico Collins there. We've still got Dalton Schultz at the tight end. There's a lot of weapons there. I don't know if you have enough ball to go around. And if there, I don't know if you have enough ball to go around and if everybody stays healthy, I think Joe Mixon is a guy getting left out because I don't think he's an everyday on back anymore. I think you're going to see a mix of him and probably somebody else. Maybe you can see some of Damian Pierce as well. Curious to see. I'm curious, because they're both kind of you know. Damian Pierce can definitely hit the hole. He's got some scat back capabilities there.

Speaker 1: 5:22

I'd be weary with drafting Joe Mixon too high. You probably want to wait a little ways for him. Next one on my list and I had him on my fantasy team and I probably will not redraft him I did get him at such a bargain. I believe I got him in the last round in our draft last year and that's Raheem Mostert. But listen, age-wise it's a big risk. Do you see him finishing at the number five guy in PPR? More than likely not. You got Devon A-Chain A-Chan breathing down his neck. If A-Chan hadn't gotten hurt, I don't think Moser sees the number five status. But the fact that they were dealing with some injuries there in Miami I think Moser came through. He probably was the healthiest the longest until the very end of the season when I needed him the most. But I digress, he's probably a guy I probably would stay away from, just because of the fact that you've got a nice young running back behind there and this team's probably going to look to throw the ball more and most are at his age probably not going to be the workhorse back. I think there's going to be a multiple head monster there in Miami and A-Chan probably getting the bulk of the big play capability. So if you're looking for a Miami running back, you definitely probably want to go with A-Chan rather than Mostert.

Speaker 1: 6:34

The one I'm probably most worried about he finished number four. It's Rashad White. Coming out of Tampa Bay, they lost our OC, baker Mayfield. Everybody says, oh, he played pretty well. Baker's never really put two seasons together. I mean he's had a good season then he's had bad seasons. I mean the really good season he had is when he took Cleveland to the playoffs. After that, I mean there's really not much to tell about Baker Mayfield. Yeah, he had a good season this year. But now losing the OC, I don't see it happening for this team and I think they struggle and I would definitely stay away from Rashad White Offensively. I think this team is going to take a giant leap backwards. I think Rashad White falls definitely out of the top 10. He may make the top 15, but I definitely don't think he's a top 10 running back, surely not a number four guy that he finished last year. Those are the guys I probably would stay away from Again David Montgomery, joe Mixon, alvin Kamara, raheem Mostert and Rashad White Definitely make my be careful with list, if you will.

Speaker 1: 7:40

Now the guys I'm really excited about and I think they can make giant leaps forward guy finished at number 24, and we just talked about him is Devon A Champ. He stays healthy. He's so explosive he could finish in the top five with his big play capability. And the man is ridiculous. He's fast, he's got nothing but speed and you know how that Miami offense is. They love their guys with speed. I look for him to get a ton of work, especially in the passing game. So if you're playing in the PPR league, I would definitely look to try to grab A-Chan as quickly as possible. Don't overgo with it. I mean there's definitely some room for worry. As I said, it's probably going to be a multi-head monster there in Miami With HN getting the bulk of the play as far as big play capability, especially in the passing game. But I definitely think he takes a leap up and he's definitely going to probably be in the top 12 range. No-transcript with that offense and the weapons there, especially if he can stay healthy, I think he's a top 12 guy for sure. Next one he finished at 25, the Gus bus Gus Edwards switching teams, heading over to the sunny land of LA there with the Chargers.

Speaker 1: 9:00

I really like this. Like I said, the running back draft this year is fairly weak. Besides, maybe a handful of guys that show some possibility. I don't know if LA grabs one. They've got so many more needs than just one position. Grabbing a running back is probably last on their list. Hence the reason you go out and get a guy like Gus Edwards who can still get it done. We all know Harbaugh runs the ball first. That's how he plays football. Everything's established with the run. Gus Edwards can be a nice solid workhorse. Definitely wouldn't be shocked to see this guy make a big leap into the top 15, possibly even top 10, especially if he gets the bulk of the touchdown carries, which I believe he will. He could be a monster. He could be a very good league winner. Some guys waited for in the draft. I really like Gus Edwards. Call me crazy, I know, but let's see what do we got. I know there's no passing game in LA right now. You really got rid of your two receivers. Your number one and your number two are both gone. They're going to have to rebuild that wide receiver room. Luckily, this wide receiver group is very deep, so I think that's why I don't think they're going to go snag a running back, because I believe by the time they filled some of the bigger needs, the running back room is going to be kind of diminished. So I look at Gus Edwards making a huge leap.

Speaker 1: 10:24

The next one number 28, it shouldn't be a shock is Josh Jacobs. Listen, you saw what Aaron Jones was able to do with the Green Bay offense when he was healthy. Josh Jacobs has younger legs and he's coming off a disappointing year where I don't think he was really thrilled to be in Las Vegas. Well, here in Las Vegas, I'm curious to see how this goes with Josh Jacobs, but I think it's going to be a monster year. I think he's going to flourish and I really, really like Josh Jacobs. I think he's a top 10 back for sure this year. I'd go as far as to say he's probably going to be a top five. I'm definitely going to try to get as much Josh Jacobs on my teams as I possibly can. This's coming up here, so that is probably a big pick.

Speaker 1: 11:08

Now the next two guys are kind of wild cards for me because it all depends on if they can stay healthy. And it's a guy who finished at number 33, jonathan Taylor, who was number one in the league not that long ago in fantasy football. If he can stay healthy, if Anthony Richards is good to go which it looks like he's going to be, like he's well ahead of schedule on his rehab if Taylor can get that bulk and get those carries and help this young quarterback, I think Jonathan Taylor is definitely a top 15 running back. I don't think he finishes at number 33 again. If he can stay healthy. The guy is a massive weapon to have. I think they're going to get him in the ball. They're going to try to get as many touches with him. So look for him to maybe pick it up in the passing game. I'm hoping, but it's all going to be bent on if he can stay healthy. He's been hurt so many times these last couple seasons. That's my biggest concern.

Speaker 1: 12:00

And the next guy same kind of thing is Aaron Jones. He finished at number 37. You see how explosive he was when he was healthy, when he was 100% Hell. Have no fury like a running back scorned because I think he was just disappointed that he was not coming back to Green Bay. Look for him to be with a man on a mission plane with a chip on his shoulder Definitely top 10 capabilities from Aaron Jones. I can see that being really explosive for him there in Minnesota, especially with the weapons. If they can get a quarterback that can facilitate that ball, it's going to open up the run game and it's what they've needed in that offense and look for that probably to happen and look for Aaron Jones to have a huge year. So, guys, those are my top five in each category what to watch out for and who probably to really try to jump on and maybe get a little round early and get ahead of the competition.

Speaker 1: 12:50

So I know, listen, we talked, we talked we were going to do some baseball. I did finally do fantasy baseball this year. My problem is I can't find anybody really to do show with me. I am not a baseball guru of any sorts. I'm definitely.

Speaker 1: 13:06

I'm struggling with fantasy baseball this year, this whole keeping an eye on it every day thing is like a second job. So I will probably postpone talking about any kind of baseball as far as fantasy-wise for a little bit, until I kind of get my feet wet. It's been a while since I've dipped in the baseball field, so we will definitely talk about it. Probably not right away, but we will get into some baseball. Hopefully I can get somebody who plays fantasy baseball a little more than I do and can give some better inside information on that one. But for now, guys, we will be joined next time by Sean. We will be breaking down the top 10 picks in the NFL draft and looking at the mock drafts, how they will affect probably the best fantasy star on those teams. So look for us on Monday, guys, and we'll see you all then.